Uganda is heading into a highly anticipated presidential election on Thursday, with President Yoweri Museveni widely expected to remain in power after nearly 40 years at the helm. The campaign period has been tense, marked by clashes and allegations of intimidation, while uncertainty continues to surround the question of who might eventually take over leadership in the long term. Museveni, who first came to power in 1986 after leading a rebellion that toppled the previous government, is now 81 years old and seeking yet another mandate.
Facing seven opponents, Museveni argues that another term would enable him to safeguard what he describes as the country’s hard-won stability and security. His strongest challenger is musician-turned-politician Bobi Wine, aged 43, who secured a significant share of the vote in the 2021 election and has since become a rallying figure for younger Ugandans frustrated by joblessness, corruption, and limited political space. Over the years, Museveni has amended the constitution to eliminate both presidential age and term limits, consolidating his control over key state institutions—factors that analysts say make a surprise outcome unlikely.
Even so, the election is being closely watched as a measure of Museveni’s grip on power, especially following international criticism of the previous vote. Uganda plays a central role in regional security, with its forces deployed in several neighbouring countries on peacekeeping and counter-insurgency missions. At home, the government is also betting on future economic expansion, with oil production expected to begin later this year, potentially transforming an economy long dependent on agriculture, tourism, and coffee exports.
Questions over succession continue to loom large. Many observers believe Museveni’s son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, is positioning himself as a future leader, despite repeated denials by the president that he is grooming his son. Kainerugaba has openly expressed presidential ambitions and is known for controversial social media posts, though his candidacy is not universally embraced within the ruling party. Meanwhile, the campaign season has again been punctuated by violence, particularly at opposition rallies, raising fears of wider unrest. Against this backdrop, Bobi Wine has framed the vote as a generational revolt, drawing strong support from young citizens who see him as a symbol of resistance and hope for political change.
